Reyeset et al. 2012 (Conference Paper) Mexico

Climate change effects on Epiphytic Bromeliads from Mangroves to seasonal forests

Author(s):—C. Reyes G., M.T. Chim, M. Cach, N.C. Galván, C. Espadas, J.L. Andrade & R. Orellana

Publication:— (2012).

Abstract:—Species distributions have been shown to be affected by global warming, causing migration of populations across altitude gradients and/or local extinctions. In the tropics databases assessing the state of natural populations are not as common as in temperate regions. We set out to 1) characterize distribution of epiphytic bromeliads across a natural precipitation gradient in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico; 2) map current populations and model future changes in species distribution; 3) follow populations for 3 years in permanent plots. Permanent plots measuring 10x10 m were set up in protected areas located in a mangrove, coastal sand dune scrub, dry deciduous forest, seasonal forest, subperennial forest. Domain was used to map current populations and scenarios of climate change produced by HADLEY were projected for 2020. Bromeliad populations were clearly linked to annual precipitation, more clearly than the trees and shrubs that hosted them. Host preference was observed in 4 out of 5 habitats. Models predict a decline in most species niche area in the peninsula, while a few drought tolerant species increased their range. These scenarios are supported by the measured population numbers. In conclusion, climate change will affect negatively most of the epiphytic bromeliad species of the Yucatan Peninsula due to increased frequency of dry years.